Aug72008

Nuclear Fallout - Mortgage Mess Continues to Pummel Average Joe

cloud1

Here’s a scenario for you:

A stranger comes up to you and asks to borrow some money. You have the ability to make the $5,000 loan being requested. The stranger can’t provide you with much information. They are vague about what their job is, how much money they make and how they will be able to repay the loan. They don’t have any assets to speak of. But they “promise” that they are going to repay the loan.

Does it sound like a good idea to make this loan?

If you said “yes,” then congratulations, you have what it takes to be a modern day finance company.

Now, you get to CLAIM YOUR PRIZE: Billions of dollars of losses!!!!

It used to be the job of banks and finance companies to ferret out the bad borrowers - you know, doing their best to solve the old adverse selection/moral hazard problem. From the huge mess we have in our financial markets right now, it seems as though all the computer algorithms that they had drawn up to make lending decisions did way worse than a monkey could have done in releasing funds to borrowers who were never going to make a payment.

_____________________________________

Finance giant and investment bank Morgan Stanley has just announced that they will “freeze” all of their clients’ home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). While the company isn’t releasing much information about this as of yet, one can speculate that the main reason for this is that the values of homes have dropped so much over the past 12 months that the equity being borrowed against is no longer there.

Hmmmm…

Knowing what we know about how many Average Joe’s and Jane’s use their homes like ATM machines, taking out equity to buy everything from new cars to vacations and plasma T.V.’s, it isn’t hard to see how further changes like this in the lending markets are going to make for a very lean Christmas this year in many homes.

punch1

This is likely troubling for consumer spending, since much of it relies on the “2 C’s:” confidence and credit. The mortgage and finance companies, who used to woo Average Joe with tantalizing offers of cheap and easy credit, are now gunning for him. It seems every dollar of red ink is stained with the blood of Average Joe’s and Jane’s across America.

If I could rub an old lamp and give orders to my genie, I would wish for ‘normal’ lending standards to return to the market - you know, like it used to be before things got absolutely nuts and ghosts started getting financing for leaving some residue on the wall.

genie1

Published
by
Adam Davis
on August 7, 2008
in Finance and economics
. 0 Comments
Aug32008

Sunday Op-Ed - What’s the Point?

What’s the point of getting rich, having all kinds of money and time if you aren’t going to live to enjoy it?

This is the question that I am posing to anyone out there with an insatiable thirst for wealth that has let their health go by the wayside on their rapid ascent to the top.

I can’t help but stand by in wild wonder at all of the financially successful people I know that look absolutely uncomfortable (and probably feel that way too). Just about every high level manager at the companies I used to work for were woefully overweight. For some reason, a huge gut was a ‘badge of courage’ of sorts for working all the long hours and eating all the takeout food.

Unfortunately, many of the successful entrepreneurs and business owners in the business community where I currently live (Metro Detroit) and other cities I travel to are woefully overweight and out of shape.

As I look around, it seems like there has to be an inherent tradeoff between making money and being healthy. Is this really the case? Am I really to think that the only path to wealth is a body composition that resembles that of an orca whale?

When you look at this from a high level, I can only come to the conclusion of complete insanity. It is insane to neglect your health of the sake of a more dollars. If money is simply a means to an end (time, freedom, material things, etc.) then what sense does it make to raise the odds that you won’t enjoy the end result you have created? Sounds like a bunch of work, time, money and effort for nothing to me.

I would even submit that establishing a more healthy lifestyle would be more conducive to accumulating wealth. What if you were more effective in your investing or your job? What if you just felt more energy each day when you got up? What if your body rewarded you with better performance for treating it well? I think more wealth would flow as a result of this.

If being successful is a choice (it is), then lifestyle is a choice as well. I don’t think it’s an incongruous choice, either. Success is about more than money and material wealth. It’s about contributing- leaving the earth a better place because you were on it for short speck of time.

I guess it’s all a matter of what you decide to focus on. Although I can only control myself and my own actions- I am going to monitor this trend.

More on this in future posts.

Published
by
Adam Davis
on August 3, 2008
in health
. 4 Comments
Jul312008

Singing the $8.7 Billion Blues

Henry Ford is rolling over in his grave right now. Ford Motor Company recently posted a quarterly loss of $8.7 billion. That’s right, billion with a “B.” It’s a staggering, mind boggling, head scratching sum.

How can a company lose $8.7 billion in a single quarter and still stay in business? For the sake of the economy here in Southeast Michigan, I hope that Ford is able to implement their turnaround plan. If not, I hate to speculate what the outcome will be.

forksign

Speaking of this, haven’t these auto companies been ‘turning around’ for the past 5 years or so? Anyway…

Being involved in residential real estate investment here in Metro Detroit, this news definitely makes me bi-polar. On the manic side, I can see more foreclosures and distressed properties coming to market, driving prices down and presenting better deals. On the depressed side, I see more unemployment, more housing inventory driving rents down and more blight taking hold.

There are indeed two sides to every coin.

For anybody doing business here in Metro Detroit (or anywhere for that matter), I present this to you as the most compelling reason to develop a global business model. Being geographically dependent on your customers and suppliers (as Southeast Michigan is so dependent upon domestic based auto manufacturing) is a non-starter. As a 21st century business, you must learn to tap into the power of a worldwide customer and supplier base.

It has been said that, in business, you are either growing or dying.

The best part of this is that we have a choice; we can succumb to the pressures of economic change or we can make our peace with them and adapt.

As always, history will be the judge and jury.

gavel

Published
by
Adam Davis
on July 31, 2008
in Real Estate and economics
. 2 Comments
Jul292008

Tuesday Top 5: 5 Ways to Rid Yourself of Life Crashing Clutter

The human existence is worsened by clutter. Sometimes the amount of “stuff” stacks up so high that you just want to push the “reset” button. It’s like your brain crashing and getting the “blue screen of death.”

Clutter is everywhere you look: your email in-box, your snail mail box, your computer desktop, your voice-mail box -pretty much every aspect of your life on planet earth in 2008.

Clutter can be defined as any form of communication, correspondence, task or process that adds no value or gets in the way of adding value. Examples are everything from benign emails (most are), snail mail (mostly bills and credit card offers) to digital junk. Clutter is insidious, so you have to be vigilant.

Here are five ways that I actively use to get rid of all the clutter and junk that gets in my way of getting the truly important things done:

1. Delete everything

That’s right. I delete 99% of all email every day. If I receive an email that requires action, I will respond and then delete the thread. This forces me to be as clear and concise as I can be in my email, thinking through everything and putting any issues to rest. Chances are, if someone replies back to you again, the previous emails will all be in the thread. If not, you are talking about different subject matter anyway - so you just saved yourself some time and in-box space.

The more email I keep, either in my inbox or archived, it seems the more I have to do. Even though something might not need action, you still feel compelled to act. This is anti-productive.

2. Throw everything away

Every piece of mail I get (as long as it’s not a birthday card or money) ends up in the garbage. I do all of my bills electronically or through auto-pay. There is no need to have mountains of paper on your desk, either. The U.S. Army used to have a rule that went like this: “you touch a piece of paper only once.” Stick to this and you’ll be doing just fine. It has worked wonders for me.

This works for non-work related things too. Just picture all the junk you had to get rid of the last time you had a garage sale. There is no need to keep things around that just take up space and nothing more. Do everyone a favor and give it to the local Goodwill store or your some other worthy cause.

3. Send everyone to voicemail

Unless I am expecting a call for a specific reason at a specific time, I let every call go to voice mail. At least half the time there is no voice mail message left, which to me means that the call really wasn’t that important. If there is a voice mail, I can listen to the message and prepare a response (or possible responses). This helps take me out of reaction mode and into proactive mode.

4. Be anal about organizing your digital files

I am pretty liberal about the delete key on my computer. As far as files go, I try to use as few as possible. It is amazing how much hard drive space you can chew up in a matter of 12 months. No wonder they keep making these things bigger and bigger (or, maybe it is because they keep making them bigger that we keep using more and more space?). Immediately prioritize the files you need to keep and those which you can discard. By the way, don’t lie to yourself and say that “I may need this one someday…”

Also, be sure to keep the digital files you do keep in an organized file structure. You should have specific folders set up for specific things, and stick to it rigidly. I’m only telling you from experience - you can easily spend 15-20 minutes at a time looking for a file that you really do need.

5. Get things off your plate like a hot potato

Anything that requires action on your part should be dealt with in a timely manner. You don’t need me to really tell you this, but I think it’s worth a friendly reminder. There is a tendency to let inertia rule your daily actions and if the momentum is not on your side, your “to-do” list piles up quickly. This leads to overwhelm, which develops into clutter very quickly. Soon, you can’t see the forest through the trees.

If you commit yourself to dealing with important items right away (and discern what is truly important), then you will be able to free yourself from the minutiae that confounds your peers.

___

As always, take today’s Top 5 for what it is: some practical insight on what works for me and what I think can work for you. Take bits and pieces or only bits if you like. The over-riding goal is to drive success levels higher - namely yours and mine.

Published
by
Adam Davis
on July 29, 2008
in Productivity
. 1 Comment
Jul242008

Which side of the curve will you be on?

Ah, one of the things that entrepreneurs like the most - academic research.

…Well, probably not - but I an interesting study came out last year about a subject that I like to talk about a lot - outsourcing.

Last year, Princeton economist Alan S. Blinder published a research paper which concluded that up to 38 million jobs, or 29 percent, of U.S. jobs are potentially offshorable within the next couple of decades. Yes, you read that right: 38 million.

Does this mean that no job is sacred any more?

Perhaps.

Does this mean that you can expect your neighbor to be competing as much against Steve from St. Petersburg, Florida as he will against Sergei from St. Petersburg, Russia?

Maybe.

Is this the real death knell for the American middle class?

Depends.

Nothing is a birthright; not a $100,000 a year job, not two houses, not three cars, not retirement - nothing. You aren’t entitled to anything here on planet earth. You have to earn it (sometimes this gets lost on a lot of people). We have a choice as to which side of the curve we are going to be on: you can be outsourced or you can be the outsourcer.

As much lip service as there is paid to “innovation,” “continuous improvement” and “global competitiveness,” how much are you putting into practice?

For as many things as there are to be outsourced, these are the many things that you can use to your advantage as an entrepreneur or working professional. If you keep taking a step up, if you make a conscious choice each day to leverage your strengths - you will be able to not only survive but thrive in the increasingly competitive global business environment.

So, which side of the curve will you be on?

bell curve

Published
by
Adam Davis
on July 24, 2008
in globalization, offshoring and outsourcing
. 0 Comments
Jul222008

Tuesday Top 5: 5 Minutes a Day to Results

I was talking to a real estate investor the other day and something he was saying during the conversation kept jumping out at me. At first, I couldn’t figure out what it was. I leaned in, listening closer and closer. Still nothing.

Driving home later that day it hit me - this investor was telling me everything they were doing, but I couldn’t tie any of it back to an end result that made any sense (sense in this case equating to profitability). This individual was going to implement a certain system for ‘X’ or a process for ‘Y’ and so on. I could definitely tell that they had spent some time as an indentured servant in cubicle-ville.

I reflected on this for a while and realized that it wasn’t really all that uncommon that former employees turned entrepreneurs struggle with being 100% results focused. They never had to be at their jobs - they just had to be good at their part of the process, perhaps not even knowing what the end result or ‘big picture’ was.

To break yourself of this mindset, take 5 Minutes each day and do the following. This has helped me tremendously.

zen

Minute 1: Clear the mechanism

Push all the junk out. You mind becomes cluttered beyond imagination. I think if you took an X-ray of most people’s minds it would look like the belly of a Great White Shark.

Minute 2: Reflect

Take stock of what your strengths are, what makes you unique and give you an edge.

Minute 3: Visualize

Picture where you want to be, what you want to be doing. If you want to move past a certain physical obstacle, picture yourself beyond it already in your mind’s eye.

Minute 4: Focus

Focus on YOU and become cognizant of the fact that you have all the tools within you to realize your vision. All of your collective experiences, thought processes and knowledge are ready to be tapped at any time.

Minute 5: Get energized

When you have a clear focus and sound mental picture, your energy level will automatically increase.

You need not be a Zen master to get something out of this practice. Sometimes, just being still and in the present moment will benefit you greatly. You may even take more than 5 minutes with it.

This practice has helped me re-tool each day and strip everything down to a ‘bare bones’ level of importance. Knowing what is truly important and key to your objectives will do more to drive results for you than anything else.

Published
by
Adam Davis
on July 22, 2008
in Productivity and quitting your job
. 3 Comments
Jul192008

Sex and the Art of Overcomplicating - Part 1

whisper in dark

For some reason humans have some gene that wants to make simple issues complex.

Overcomplicating. Making something bigger than it is. Creating a mountain out of a molehill.

Call it what you want, but there aren’t very many things that mess up situations in life more than making a problem or situation grow to disproportionately. Think of the last time you had an argument or disagreement with someone - did you find it escalate? Each side digging their heels in more?

I think we (all of us) have a tendency to read too much into things - we make assumptions and judgments and conclusions without having anything real to base them on. It seems that our brains don’t like to sit on issues for very long. It suits us better to make a snap decision, check the thought off of our mental list and move on.

In relationships, how many times have you heard: “sex will just complicate things”? Why is this? The pressing emotional and physical needs get ‘checked off’ by the brain, regardless of the consequences.

It happens all the time in business (if it didn’t, then Dilbert writer Scott Adams would be out of a job). Meetings and discussions ad-nauseum for the sake of more meetings and discussions. The more time, effort, analysis are wielded to decide to make decisions to make an end decision.

Overcomplicating can be insidious. It creeps up on you when you least expect it.

We were recently looking financing for our real estate investment business. The structure, terms and payment schedule were what we expected - however, when it came down to which properties to finance the water got a little murky. We started to analyze things more and more. We questioned our original plan; was it still valid? What about “X” or “Y” or “Z”? It seemed like our minds were playing tricks on us. We had lost sight of the overriding goal and intent of our actions. We had overcomplicated a situation that, in its essence, was really quite simple.

Too much information can cause analysis paralysis - which we experienced. Fear and uncertainty can also cause us to make things much bigger than they really are - if we overcomplicate it, we can analyze it more and more and avoid making a decision.

Remember the KISS principle? Keep It Simple Stupid. The more we adhere to this the better off we will be - in all situations.

Published
by
Adam Davis
on July 19, 2008
in Inspiration and Self Improvement
. 0 Comments
Jul152008

Tuesday Top 5: 5 People I’d Like to Meet

If you could have dinner with any 5 people in the world today, who would you pick? Variations of this hypothetical question have been discussed for ages (historical figures, athletes, etc.). What I find interesting is that my list has changed a lot from the last time I really thought about it.

**Now, when I say “really thought about it” I don’t mean that I am dedicating serious time on a regular basis to thinking about who I’d like to meet, well…maybe too much time but not really that much - does that make sense? sure…**

I thought I would have a little fun with today’s Top 5 and list the 5 people in the world today that I would like to have dinner with along with a brief explanation of why. The list is not in any particular order of relevance or importance.

1. Barack Obama

obama

I want to look into his eyes and see if this guy is for real or not. I honestly don’t know which way I am going to cast my vote yet in November, but Obama seems to be a candidate that has such an abundance of charisma and charm that it would be a lot of fun to be around him for a few minutes. Although I wasn’t around when John F. Kennedy was running for president, I think that there are some definite similarities between the two and I would like to hear Obama’s candid take on what he thinks of the parallel.

2. Alan Greenspan

greenspan

I want to get his truly candid thoughts about what it will take to put American’s economy on the right track for the long term. I’d like to get a few glasses of wine in him and get him to open up about his real feelings about the current credit crunch situation and what he feels like his role was in precipitating it. Also, I’d like to know how he managed to successfully navigate the dicey political waters of Washington politics so deftly for so many years and how he was married to a professional reporter and somehow no real big or meaningful information ever leaked (secret underground lair, anyone?)

3. Robert Kiyosaki (aka: Rich Dad)

rich dad

I first read Rich Dad, Poor Dad about six years ago, and I can honestly say the book helped change the way I thought about money and wealth accumulation. However, I have had some lingering thoughts since I put the book down, such as: was there really a ‘rich dad’? Was Kiyosaki truly ‘financially free’ before releasing the Rich Dad book series? Why did he wait so long to have ‘Rich Dad Coaching’? Maybe there is a hidden skeptic inside of me, but I just can’t help wonder these things. I think this book really re-launched what I call the “self-help wealth” information marketing movement, so I think it would be fun to have a candid conversation with a catalyst.

4. Tim Ferriss

ferriss

The Four Hour Workweek has to be the ‘paradigm’ shifting book for a new generation of entrepreneurs and workers. I like this book and his companion ‘Lifestyle Design’ blog so much that I think it would be a blast to have dinner with him. For anyone that has read the book or blog, you know that very few writers and bloggers could gain such immense popularity and worldwide attention with such a seemingly wide (but actually well-niched) focus on all things relevant to a mobile and flexible lifestyle.

5. Hu Jintao

hu

The leader of the world’s most populous nation (hint: China) has such a big job that I wonder how one deals with that level of responsibly. With China becoming a rapidly rising world superpower (not just economic superpower) I can’t help but wonder what goes through his mind as he looks at his to-do list every day:

  • feed 1.4 million people left homeless by earthquake
  • merge communist party politics with 21st century global capitalism
  • lunch
  • escalate rhetoric of taking over Taiwan by force
  • practice speech for Olympic games opening ceremony

I’m not sure if it really looks like that or not, but it would be fun to ask him.

Well, there you have the Top 5 people I’d like to meet - at least as of right now.

Let the proverbial #!%! hit the fan (this is my way of saying I welcome your comments and feedback).

Published
by
Adam Davis
on July 15, 2008
in Self Improvement and Success
. 1 Comment
Jul112008

Too Big to Fail? What the Heck is Really Going On?

godzilla

Since just about every other blogger under the sun has weighed in on the pending financial meltdown that an insolvent Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac would create in the global credit markets - I feel compelled to throw my hat in the ring as well (what better thing to do when getting buzzed on caffeine at Caribou coffee on a Friday night?).

Many of you are probably familiar with the “too big to fail” tag that has been attached to some large financial institutions in times of trouble, most recently Bear Stearns. This tag has been thrown on the Government Sponsored Entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in recent days as their stock values have plummeted and their financial woes have raised eyebrows across the world. “Too big to fail” means that the government should step in and prevent an institution from failing so as to preserve the greater good of the public.

I can tell you first hand, from an entrepreneur’s standpoint, that having the credit markets get worse right now would be bad news for me and a lot of my brethren. I know that the age-old argument of government interference in private enterprise is alive and well here, but I can’t help but take a look at what the implications would be if financing real estate transactions slowed down further or the capital markets failed to function in getting companies from small to large the money they need to work and grow.

Our economy has become so overly dependent upon credit and liquidity to even operatethat things will really come to a standstill if big shocks occur. The speed with which markets react to information is stunning and it wouldn’t take long for banks and credit card companies to put the screws on small business owners - squeezing profits and impeding growth.

Much of the commentary about this situation right now is focused on big companies and Wall Street banks. The entrepreneur is left out of the discussion but not out of the equation. I think that something should be done from a cooperation standpoint between the governments and other institutions that are close to Fannie and Freddie. We can’t afford to go ‘cold turkey’ in changing our credit dependency overnight - we need to enter rehab first and work it out of our system.

I am hoping and praying for sanity during this whole mess. Though I am confident that things will work themselves out over the long term, the short term will mean pain for somebody, portfolio companies, pension funds, investors, etc.

We can only look forward and learn from what is going on right now and eliminate the ‘irrational exhuberence’ that has once again penalized investors and, most likely taxpayers, again.

“I can calculate the movements of heavenly bodies but not the madness of men.”

Sir Isaac Newton

Published
by
Adam Davis
on July 11, 2008
in Finance and economics
. 0 Comments
Jul32008

Did you actually grow up to be a firefighter?

Backdraft was a cool movie. Ladder 49 was pretty cool as well. Heck, being a firefighter might actually be neat…

Maybe you already are a firefighter and you just don’t know it. Curious? Read on…

fire

Do you spend more time during the course of your day putting out fires than anything else? Do you find yourself in reaction mode all the time?

If so, then the order of the day is: becoming proactive. (if you said no, then I think you nose might have grown an inch or two)

Surprisingly few people in the world are truly proactive. Few people plan ahead and put themselves in a position to accomplish what they need to do.

Most people are reactive, living in a constant state of having decisions made for them and being ordered to and fro. This translates over to the entrepreneurial realm as well. Many entrepreneurs and small business owners are constantly in ‘fire-fighter’ mode. Everything is an emergency. All the plates are spinning at 9,000 RPM.

How can you slow the plates (or even set a few of them down)?

It’s not an easy transition. Something in the human psyche love martyrdom. We love to be exasperated fighting the good fight. We love to one-up others’ stories of plight and hard dealings with our own (think about the last conversation you had with somebody…did you say something and then, immediately after you were done hear them say “well, if you think that’s bad, listen to what happened to me…). It’s no surprise, then, that people like to be constantly running around at mach 3 with their hair on fire. It seems that most business owners are quite content to run around without any real method to their madness.

The reactive entrepreneur is always putting out fires. They always have some problem they are dealing with, some distraction from the main focus of their business.

This commercial is a perfect example of what the life of a reactive entrepreneur is like:

The proactive entrepreneur, on the other hand, is almost always in control. They don’t operate from a permanent residence in crisis-ville.

How can you move from reactive to proactive? It will vary. For some, it will require a complete re-wiring of their brains and a complete change in their lifestyle. For others, it will be some simple changes in thought process and planning.

Some business models are set up to induce chaos for the owner. The owner is the centerpiece of everything and every decision hinges on them. This is a mistake. In other instances, ‘control-freakism’ on behalf of the owner is responsible for the owner not being able to escape any minute decision - critical mission failure again.

If you really want to stop putting out fires everyday, you have to:

a. Plan - clear up objectives and priorities

b. Simplify - eliminate, reduce and retread

c. Delegate - get rid of all the crap work you find yourself doing on a daily basis

It takes a while to reverse the chaotic inertia. When people are paralyzed relying on your decisions, when you don’t have simple and clear objectives, when you don’t plan your next moves you won’t be able to put out the fires - you’ll just keep running around with a fire extinguisher until you collapse from exhaustion. Then, you’ll get up, repeat the process again - unless you makes some simple changes.

If you work for the fire department, well, please keep doing a good job.

Published
by
Adam Davis
on July 3, 2008
in Entrepreneurship and Management
. 4 Comments
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